But it was more than enough to get both my father and I hooked for life. In many ways, it seemed like a slam dunk. We finally got back on the storm in between East Duke and Mangum, Oklahoma. After dinner, I did some in depth model analysis and some of what I saw was eye-popping; extreme instability coupled with incredible shear created a parameter space on par with or perhaps exceeding any of the biggest outbreaks in recorded history. Even so, the storm remained discrete and we just couldnt leave it in favor of other storms when it was in that environment. Rather than discussing that, lets talk a little about how we did. In addition, the May 2019 tornado production was persistent, as 28 of the 31 days in May had at least one tornado reported. Massive thunderstorm-triggered haboob that lasted over 2 hours and 100 miles. It was on the ground for 20 miles and left devastation a half-mile wide. As a byproduct of falling in love with chasing, I was fortunate enough to pursue and complete a B.Sc in Meteorology from the University of Miami in 2014 and a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Wisconsin - Madison in 2018. But when it ultimately comes down to it, theres nothing that hypes up storm chasers like when a high-end convective outlook is issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Much of the Texas Panhandle and nearly all of Oklahoma dodged a serious bullet. Most surprisingly, there were almost no supercell storms in the prime part of the warm sector across southwest Oklahoma, south of a warm front and well east of the cold front/dryline, where the air was most unstable and wind shear was amply supportive of high-end twisters. Particularly photogenic tornado from well-structured supercell. While my passion in weather is undoubtedly tornadoes, it isn't quite where my formal expertise lies. DEBRIS WAS OBSERVED IN THE ASSOCIATED RADAR . Each case comes with documentation, a proximity sounding from unmodified RAP and ERA5 reanalysis, (see disclaimer), and storm-centered NEXRAD imagery. Could be a little placebo effect, but I choose to believe its not. But residents across Oklahoma and portions of Texas were led to anticipate the worst, as the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center placed the region under the highest threat category of tornado outbreak. This event should result in a significant threat to life and property. At this point, we assumed that the storm would recycle and produce another, larger tornado. MOORE, Okla. - Six years ago, a devastating EF-5 tornado hit Moore, killing more than 20 people, including children. 1/9 Those rooting for long-track tornadoes & destruction yesterday probably were wondering what went "wrong" with the forecast. As bust was making it around social media, tornadoes, hail, and intense rainfall were still on the table for many people, and they needed to remain alert. Photogenic and tornadic mothership supercell. Take control of your data. Many believe the High Risk outlook issued by the SPC busted. Particularly photogenic, cyclic supercell that produced several tornadoes up to EF2. May 20, 2019 Tornado Mangum, Oklahoma. Our weather forecasts continue to improve as our technology and understand advance but tornado forecasting is still hard. The tornado probabilities on the watch were astounding: greater than 95% chance of two or more tornadoes; 90% chance of one EF2+ tornado. This is a little-used threat category, and it had been two years since a similar high-level alert had been issued in the United States. I have ideas from deep professional/scientific experience. To understand my journey towards an obsession with weather is to start over 20 years ago (!!!) Excerpt from the May 20th, 2019 SPC 1630z day one outlook A series of two EF4 tornadoes, one of which was extremely long-tracked, that quickly became colloquialized as the Quad-State Tornado, though surveys found a significant break in damage. There was the northward surge of highly unstable, tropical air with high moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Oklahoma record hailstone, measuring 6 inches. Since 2006, we've been out chasing every year save for 2018 when I was writing my Ph.D. dissertation. Long-tracked EF3 tornado, part of North Carolinas largest tornado outbreak on record. May 23rd, 2019. EF2 tornado, one of several produced by a slow-moving supercell. Forgot your password? Sure enough, the storm to the west seeded our storm and undercut it with outflow. A derecho that damaged over 850,000 acres of crops across eastern IA and destroyed over 1,000 homes in Cedar Rapids alone, where a gust of 126 mph was recorded nearby. This has always been somewhat baffling to me. Looking for inspiration? The timing of bust declarations. Ironically, caps can be key ingredients in explosive storm development too. Sure enough, a chopper was reporting a large, multi-vortex tornado on the ground not a mile from our location. As if this wasnt enough, the SPC soon issued its first watch for right where we were sitting. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. A brief tornado had apparently already occurred while we were still west of Childress . Cyclic supercell that produced multiple tornadoes, including a large, dust-wrapped, and particularly photogenic wedge tornado. June? Tornado outbreak sequence of May 15-20, 2017 - This was day 4 of the outbreak sequence. Why wasnt the tornado outbreak in Oklahoma and Texas as bad as feared? The short of it: I hold a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and have been chasing storms in the plains since 2006. Long-tracked EF3 tornado and 5 hail that dealt the Northwoods distinguishable damage scar. A rare PDS outbreak stokes our basic curiosities even as we know the storms could alter lives in an instance. The proclamation quickly became a lead story among the major news outlets. For me, there is no better tornado chasing than in an enhanced risk characterized by a 10% hatched tornado probability. If youre wondering how did this sounding do that?, remember to check for boundaries, cell mergers, and chaos! Many have. Realizing quickly that storms werent moving nearly as fast as expected, we shot back south towards Childress. This was Level 5 out of 5, the high-risk category for a widespread, major severe weather outbreak that included large and destructive hail, destructive winds, and tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent.. Long-lived, heavily rain-wrapped EF4 tornado. There were 14 billion-dollar disasters in 2019, making it the fifth consecutive year with at least 10 billion-dollar disasters. Widely-photographed cone tornado produced by nearly stationary supercell. Hype or hope? EF3 tornado that took a highly deviant left turn, part of a local outbreak of tornadoes across north Texas. Some of the attributes pertaining to vertical distribution of instability were not well captured in our state-of-the-art prediction models. Particularly photogenic dusty EF3 tornado, part of an outbreak of tornadoes across IL and the Ohio Valley. Some of the images of chaser traffic behind us are mind blowing. A particularly photogenic mothership supercell. Monday May 20, 2019 was a high risk day in Oklahoma. Pair of particularly photogenic tornadoes. The abstract says that very high and very low false alarm rates led to inferior decision making, but that lowering the false alarm rate slightly did not significantly affect compliance or decision quality. These results are counter to previous studies that linked cry wolf with non-compliance to warnings. Further complicating things, each time wed stop the RFD would blast us with strong wind and heavy rain. In the delicate balance of this decision lies the potential for disconnect between forecast models and reality, and the subtle nuances of processes governing convective storms. Particularly photogenic and cyclic supercell that produced several tornadoes up to EF3. The atmosphere was capped more than expected. November 15, 2005: Madisonville, Kentucky, April 2, 2006: Marmaduke, Arkansas / Caruthersville, Missouri, March 28, 2007: Silverton / Jericho, Texas, April 24, 2007: Eagle Pass, Texas / Piedras Negras, CH, Mexico, June 23, 2007: Pipestone, Manitoba, Canada, February 5, 2008: Atkins / Clinton, Arkansas, February 5, 2008: Jackson and Clifton, Tennessee, August 7, 2010: Tyler, North Dakota / Doran, Minnesota, December 31, 2010: Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri, April 27, 2011: Philadelphia, Mississippi, April 27, 2011: Hackleburg & Smithville, Alabama, April 27, 2011: Tuscaloosa / Birmingham, Alabama, May 24, 2011: El Reno / Piedmont, Oklahoma, May 24, 2011: Chickasha / Newcastle, Oklahoma, May 19, 2012: Kingman / Harper Counties, Kansas, February 10, 2013: Hattiesburg, Mississippi, May 19, 2013: Lake Thunderbird / Shawnee, Oklahoma, April 27, 2014: Mayflower / Vilonia, Arkansas, May 18, 2014: Wright / Newcastle, Wyoming, April 9, 2015: Rochelle / Fairdale, Illinois, May 6, 2015: Amber / Bridge Creek / Norman, Oklahoma, June 5, 2015: Anton / Cope / Kirk, Colorado, June 22, 2015: Woodhaven Lakes / Sublette, Illinois, July 13, 2015: Nickerson / Hutchinson, Kansas, November 16, 2015: Plains, Kansas and Pampa, Texas, December 23, 2015: Holly Springs, Mississippi, May 9, 2016: Katie / Wynnewood / Sulphur, Oklahoma, May 24, 2016: Minneola / Dodge City, Kansas, June 2, 2017: Three Hills, Alberta, Canada, July 12, 2017: Mayville/ Buxton, North Dakota, June 28, 2018: Capitol, Montana / Camp Crook, South Dakota, July 8, 2018: Interstate 8 / Southwest Arizona, July 19, 2018: Bondurant, Marshalltown, and Pella, Iowa, September 21, 2018: Dunrobin / Gatineau / Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, October 2, 2018: Conneautville, Pennsylvania, December 1, 2018: Havana and Taylorville, Illinois, May 23, 2019: Canadian, Texas / Laverne, Oklahoma, September 10, 2019: Guernsey / Lingle, Wyoming, September 29, 2019: Champaign County, Illinois, March 2, 2020: Nashville / Cookeville, Tennessee, April 12, 2020: Bassfield / Soso, Mississippi, April 22, 2020: Madill / Springer, Oklahoma, August 7, 2020: Virden / Scarth, Manitoba, Canada, March 25, 2021: Greensboro / Centreville, Alabama, April 27, 2021: Truscott / Benjamin / Electra, Texas, June 10, 2021: Sidney, Montana / Alexander, North Dakota, July 14, 2021: Jewell Junction / Stanhope, Iowa, August 11, 2021: Mineral Point, Wisconsin, September 1, 2021: Mullica Hill, New Jersey, December 10, 2021: Monette, Arkansas / Mayfield, Kentucky, March 21, 2022: Round Rock & Elgin, Texas, March 22, 2022: New OrleansArabi, Louisiana, April 21, 2022: Rush Center & Offerle, Kansas, November 4, 2022: Clarksville, Texas Idabel, Oklahoma, a local outbreak in and around the Texas panhandle, series of particularly photogenic tornadoes, Pair of particularly photogenic tornadoes. Looking back now with far more experience in my pocket, we didn't see anything particularly incredible that week. Updrafts tended to be skinny. Wedge tornado produced by high-precipitation supercell, with recorded winds up to 212 mph, though rated an EF2. Tornadoes Over Tulsa At Night May 20th, 2019 11,994 views May 21, 2019 139 Dislike Share Save soccermisfit1 313 subscribers This is the second of two circulation features which went over. Part of a large-scale outbreak of tornadoes. Required fields are marked *. Massive, long-lived, high-precipitation supercell that produced a few tornadoes and very large hail. Such events reveal a certain scientific giddiness coexisting with a sense of dread among meteorologists and weather enthusiasts. Thousands of people were out chasing that day, and yet it appeared that very few were in a similar position to ours. NOAAs Storm Prediction Center(SPC)tweeted that morning: Parts of Arkansas, Missouri, andOklahoma were under tornado warnings and flooding threats early Tuesday morning as I write this article. I get it. Massive and particularly photogenic mothership supercell. For that we should all be thankful even us storm chasers who want nothing more than to chase on a day with the feel. Additional cases will be added. In general (especially prior to 2021), RAP has a bias toward warm, dry surface conditions and weak low-level shear, especially on drier days. While tornadoes and other forms of severe weather did materialize in the threat area, the highly anticipated violence of extremely intense, widespread tornadoes did not. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 3 people as part of the largest November IL tornado outbreak on record. High-precipitation, cyclic supercell that produced multiple weak tornadoes. Both supercells were very long-lived, one producing over 10 tornadoes, many significant and deadly. Nearly ten years later I convinced my dad to take me storm chasing with a tour group called Silver Lining Tours after seeing a TV show about the tour leader, Roger Hill. We got into the hook of the storm and looked back at the mesocyclone south of Kirkland, Texas a spot that shouldve provided us with a perfect view of the tornado. Particularly photogenic tornado, part of a cold-core outbreak of tornadoes across south/central NE. Even having seen a significant tornado only moments before, this seemed incomprehensible. Possible explanation here in the 21z and 00z weather balloon launch from Norman and you can see substantial warming around 675 hpa. When was the last time Dallas, Texas had a tornado? Much to their dismay, my enthusiasm was unwavering; I needed to experience Mother Nature at her fiercest. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 8 people, the strongest February tornado on record in Oklahoma. Particularly photogenic supercell, especially for the area and time of year. Infamous long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 6 people and destroyed an already decaying town. It was at this point we realized that most had made the choice to go north then east and were now behind the storm which had begun to deviate to the right. Search the case index below for cases by state, month, year, location, and other key info. A tornado was spotted just outside of Tangipahoa, Louisiana, Wednesday evening, according to the National Weather Service New Orleans. Also featured a rather large eye on radar at peak intensity. 23:48 - April is May and May is April 25:16 - Warmer Gulf Early Means More Severe 26:16 - More seasonal variability 29:06 - Boom or Bust Seasons? We were flabbergasted, as it was in theoretically the best environment for the genesis of violent tornadoes the planet had seen in many years. Often regarded as the gold standard for dust storms for the Phoenix area. Data are valid at the time nearest the climax of the event (e.g., when a tornado was reported, or when the most well-known photographs were taken). Particularly photogenic tornadoes, part of a cold core tornado outbreak across eastern CO and western KS. We turned on the radio to listen to local reports that were coming through. This archive sparks the question, why did this happen? Similar environments make similar storms, but a storms environment isnt just skew-Ts and hodographs. (KWTV-KOTV/AP) Article On Monday, more than 20 tornadoes developed across four states in the southern Great Plains, producing pockets of considerable damage throughout Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas. We began the day with severe storms moving over our hotel in Amarillo. This tornado outbreak was the state's costliest, clocking in around $2 billion. I think there is a time for the discussion about forecast verification, and it is not in the midst of an evolving, dangerous event. This was the highest probability watch Id ever been in, let alone chased. This page is a useful bookmark for past famous tornadoes, supercells, and other storms in the United States and Canada. So what happened on Mondayor rather, what didnt happen, and why? Long-tracked, EF4 tornado that killed 11 people as part of a large-scale tornado outbreak across the Ohio Valley. SPC noted that This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%. There was virtual certainty that these things were going to happen, and they actually did. This event also produced the most deadly and devastating tornado of the year for Oklahoma and the the United States. Tornadoes in the main outbreak region from May 17 through 30. It just didnt make sense. (624 Miles) May 12, 2022 - 80-90 MPH Straight line winds in a fast moving Derecho near Huron, SD (1585 Miles) 3-6 hours difference is what saved Oklahoma today. Pair of particularly photogenic LP mothership supercells. For educational use. The most honest short answer is we dont know yet, but there are already a few clues. 149-mile-long EF4 tornado that killed 10 people. Particularly photogenic tornado, especially for the area. I personally don like the knee jerk bust declarations as a real-time event is unfolding. Particularly photogenic, cyclic tornadic supercell (up to EF3). Infamous first EF5 tornado that killed 11 people and destroyed 95% of the town. Bob Henson is a meteorologist and writer at weather.com, where he co-produces the Category 6 news site at Weather Underground. #okwx @NWSNorman pic.twitter.com/gzvOQv75ON, Tornado damage and path visible in fields from outskirts of Mangum, OK #OKWX #Tornado pic.twitter.com/RybNPXaImP. Schools and colleges in central Oklahoma were closed for the day, not only out of safety concerns for the sheltering in place but also because of vulnerable bus routes. My Forbes colleague Dennis Mersereaus tweet is spot on: Today, and I cannot stress this enough, is why you dont hype the weather. What if we had had 5 of those yesterday in the warm sector? Some of the feel is undoubtedly related to the hype that comes with high-end tornado events. May 18, 2019. EF3 tornado from a cyclic and high-precipitation supercell that produced 8 tornadoes across southeast NE during a Mothers Day tornado event. Photogenic and well-structured supercell. Photogenic UFO-like supercell that dealt a swath of wind-driven significant-severe hail. Very long-tracked EF3 tornado that lasted over an hour and a half. We knew all along that these storms wouldnt be the real show, so we didnt worry too much. 0305: 6 N BALD HILL : OKMULGEE : OK: 3583: 9584: EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A TORNADO. EF3 and EF4 tornadoes, the former long-tracked and killing 5 people, the latter killing 19 people. Massive high-precipitation mothership supercell. There was an electricity a nervousness that only comes with a truly high-end severe weather day. Particularly photogenic supercell and tornado. The HRRR and NAM showed an extraordinary day with many, May 6, 2019 - Severe Storms in central KS including tornadic supercell at night north of Greensburg. 10:02 p.m.: . The tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019. In the core high-risk area, SPC called for up to 45% odds that any of these significant events could occur within a 25-mile radius of any point: an EF2 tornado, hail of at least 2, or wind gusts to at least 74 mph. Some 10,000 Colorado customers. A tornado hit Jefferson City, Missouri's capital, late Wednesday night, and more extreme weather is in the forecast for today. Truncated cone tornado rated EF2 that damaged a gas plant. Two long-tracked EF5 tornadoes from separate supercells that, together, killed 95 people. Texas State record hailstone measured at 6.4 diameter, produced by a particularly massive supercell storm. We recognize our responsibility to use data and technology for good. On. Those not as sadistic wondered what we missed w/overforecasting in a results-based sense. There was even a car accident between some chasers as traffic grinded to a near halt. We watched on our computer as the tour vans intercepted a vicious hailstorm in Montana that blew out all the windows in their caravan and left the passengers with large bruises. EF3 tornado, part of an outbreak of tornadoes across MS and AL. Particularly photogenic mothership supercell that produced a couple of tornadoes. Particularly photogenic tornado from low-precipitation mothership supercell. Earlier this week the Great Plains experienced severe weather. Tornado outbreaks just feel different than other chase days. Several supercell thunderstorms developed . when I was in second grade. Having said all of that, the reality is that false alarms are a challenge in weather messaging (or are they?) There are many factors that likely influence a decision to act on a warning: optimism bias (it wont be as bad as they say), the psychological evaluation of risks vs. cost, geography or lack of trust of the warnings themselves. Particularly photogenic haboob that traveled around 200 miles across the Sonoran Desert. Cyclic mothership supercell that produced multiple brief tornadoes in quick succession. My dad was initially skeptical, but we signed up and were ready to take the plunge. Trees groan under the weight of snowfall in Boulder, Colorado, on Tuesday morning, May 21, 2019. Severe weather outlook for May 20th 2019 as issued, Meteorologists in the NWS Norman office. EF3 tornado that was largely unanticipated. Cyclic supercell that produced multiple tornadoes (rated up to EF3) and later acquired a particularly photogenic mothership structure, part of an anomalous and Plains-like severe weather outbreak for the area. EF2 and EF3 wedge tornadoes from the same supercell. EF4 tornado, part of an outbreak of tornadoes in the Southeast U.S. Photogenic and long-lived EF3 tornado that took a particularly abrupt northward jog, narrowly missing downtown. Kansas state record hailstone, measuring 7.75 inches. Since I started chasing, I've seen a host of significant tornado events, including the 2011 Joplin EF5 and the 2013 El Reno EF3 (El Reno was an EF5), amongst many others. Cyclic tornadic supercell that produced 17 tornadoes up to EF4 across northwest Iowa. Infamous long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 6 people and destroyed an already decaying town. That was [what] I was imagining when I walked in the door yesterday. After having it read to me just once, I was hooked. Part of the 2011 Super Outbreak. @NWSAmarillo #phwx pic.twitter.com/PfVTZ335Hr. Photogenic supercell that produced a swath of hail up to 3.25 inches. The list was procured by how impactful the storms were to civilization, how abnormal they were for the area, or how memorable they were to storm chasers. Just the fourth time in history a 45% probability had been issued and the wording in the discussion was terrifying. Around 9:50 p.m., the tornado that would almost fully destroyed Greensburg began shredding it to bits. A large, powerful low pressure system moved up across . (709 Miles) May 24, 2022 - Bust down near Brownwood in Central Texas. Particularly photogenic supercell, especially for the northern California region. At times, there seems to be a disappointment factor if nothing happens, and there was preparation. His point is that overuse of certain words can desensitize the public to events like yesterday. Slow-moving EF4 wedge tornado lasting over 90 minutes, often referred to as Bennington II. These heavy rains certainly materialized, albeit focused a bit further north than expected. EF4 tornado that killed 9 people after impacting an elevated highway bridge. Long-lived, nearly stationary EF3 wedge tornado. Many school systems closed for the day, and shops and restaurants shuttered their doors in advance of the anticipated onslaught. Particularly photogenic tornado, the first of multiple (up to EF3) from a cyclic supercell. Here are three dangers of the word bust in such real-time weather events. It was time for a tire change (safety first, and tires are a priority), so we took care of that in the morning before we departed on the chase. Two days prior on May 18th, the SPC issued a relatively rare Day three moderate risk, and re-upped the moderate risk the following day. Tornado which made what was likely the first recorded tornadic sonic boom upon dissipation. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%. The only other watch like this was issued for Alabama on 27 April 2011. pic.twitter.com/BgpjKBMffL. Meteorologists seemed awestruck at the tornado outbreaks potential, using terms such as nightmare scenario and a rare kind of event that may take many lives. And a horde of storm chasers converged on Oklahoma, with some hoping the day would bring the chase of a lifetime. Long-tracked EF4 tornado, part of a local outbreak of intense tornadoes in the ArkLaTex. As a meteorologist, I certainly understand that when verification statistics are done, this event likely falls short of some of the messaging metrics associated with outbreaks. From a meteorological perspective, was it a bust? Pair of photogenic tornadic waterspouts over Lake Michigan. As Edwards put it, Amazing parameter spaces don't produce [without] storms in them.. Long-lived EF3 tornado, the strongest recorded in southeast MT. EF3 tornado, part of an outbreak of tornadoes across OK and AR. Photogenic and plains-like supercell, part of a multi-day montage of mothership storms. One of several weakly-rated but photogenic tornadoes. And sure enough, the army of supercells remained in the simulated reflectivity fields. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM. However, smoke's effects on supercells might actually depend on the particulars of a given weather day, as suggested in a 2014 modeling study. ET, May 23, 2019 www awardselect com award select. EF3 tornado that killed 6 people. Part of a High Risk event regarded by some as a bust due to a lack of intense tornadoes across Oklahoma. The first week, the boy I was paired with came to me with a book about tornadoes. Sometimes the atmosphere humbles even the best forecasters. EF5 tornado from a particularly photogenic supercell for the area that killed 3 people. That first trip was in 2006 and was unforgettable even in a very forgettable year for storms. They (generally) dont just pop up out of nowhere, and with the rise of social media consequent with the popularization of storm chasing as a quasi-mainstream hobby, no big day goes unnoticed in the days leading up. Slow-moving, nearly stationary at times, EF3 (but likely stronger) wedge tornado regarded with particular fondness by many storm chasers, due to its lasting over an hour with no physical harm done to civilization; also known as Bennington I. Data is our film room.. A copy of my dissertation can be found here. pic.twitter.com/JQLisTVZZs. (1/2) A 2nd look at *prelim* DOW data from Mangum, OK tornado reveals a potentially violent tornado: ~80m/s peak winds (~180mph), *Delta-V* of 140 m/s, and a pronounced debris ball. Just as the motion was starting to become rather impressive, we realized we had to move to avoid being outflanked. The cap won. A sequence of tornadoes, including two at one time, emerged from a compact supercell that passed just to the west of Oklahoma City. Immaculately-structured mothership supercell that evaded all but a few lone chasers. The outbreak was widely anticipated with a Moderate risk originally being issued on Day 2. . Myconcern is that our weather geekery and verification statistics dont really matter to someone that was impacted. Simultaneously, heavy rains from severe thunderstorms flooded roads and houses and triggered water rescues. It even smells different, although Im not quite sure I can put my finger on what thats about. Only the 18th time @NWSSPC has issued a Day 3 Moderate Risk. A new study entitled Cry wolf effect? Even our storm seemed to be attached at the hip to another storm on its northeastern flank never a good sign. One of multiple tornadoes produced by a cyclic supercell. EF3 tornado, part of the New Years Eve tornado outbreak. It had the smell. Massive and particularly photogenic crown-shaped supercell that also produced a rain-wrapped EF2 tornado. We sat in Childress for a couple more hours, waiting to see what the new SPC day one outlook set to come out at 1130 am would show us. We were confused, as we didnt have a visual of a ground circulation even given our ability to see the rapidly rotating wall cloud just to our west. A quick recap of rainfall and flood reports over the past 24 hours, compared to the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook at 15Z yesterday (after High Risk was expanded). In a nutshell: Having a tremendous amount of buoyancy available for storm updrafts is one thing, but it needs to be released in a manner so that all that upward acceleration is concentrated low down in the atmosphere so it can amplify the developing rotation inside supercells. Long-tracked, EF3 wedge tornado, part of the largest tornado event in AZ on record. EF5 tornado, one of the U.S.s deadliest on record due especially to a particularly rapid evolution, killing 158 people. EF3 tornado, largely regarded as a surprise event. EF3 tornado and others from cyclic, high-precipitation supercell. Localized outbreak of tornadoes (up to EF3), including 2 simultaneous EF2 tornadoes across central IA.
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